Abstract On August 25th, Yabuli China Entrepreneur Forum 2016 Summer Summit was held in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province. Zhang Weiying, chief economist of Yabuli China Entrepreneur Forum, said in his speech that the limitation of human cognition and the distortion of incentive mechanism mean Industrial policy is bound to be...
On August 25th, Yabuli China Entrepreneur Forum 2016 Summer Summit was held in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province. Zhang Weiying, chief economist of Yabuli China Entrepreneur Forum, said in his speech that the limitations of human cognition and the distortion of incentive mechanism mean Industrial policy is destined to fail, more like a gamble. He advocates the abolition of any form of industrial policy, the government does not give any industry, enterprise special policy. Zhang Weiying uses important innovations in human history to illustrate that innovation is unpredictable. Inventions and commercializations such as steam engines, trains, automobiles, airplanes, lasers, computers, etc. were unexpected.
He said that with the extension, we also have no way to make any plans for industrial innovation. China's industrial policy means that this is actually a gamble of blind people riding a horse. He asked, if technology and innovation are predictable, then we don't need entrepreneurs, we just need government officials. Because innovation is unpredictable, we need the judgment and vigilance of entrepreneurs and keep trying to make mistakes.
Can an industrial policy be based on officials? Zhang Weiying specifically explained that government officials do not have the vigilance and judgment of entrepreneurs. Even if there are no incentives like entrepreneurs, they cannot rely on officials to formulate industrial policies. “If an official realizes the importance of a technology, then the technology is generally outdated.â€
Zhang Wei ushered an example. In the past, the government had vigorously developed the CRT technology and invested billions of dollars in the production line of the CRT. The results were not assembled yet, the technology was outdated, and the CRT was completely eliminated.
Can we rely on experts to formulate industrial policies? Zhang Weiying said that it is not good, because experts may have the necessary hard knowledge, but there is no soft knowledge necessary for sharpness and innovation.
Can we rely on entrepreneurs to formulate industrial policies? No, Zhang Weiying said that the entrepreneurs we are talking about have been successful, but the past success is not the guiding light of the future.
What are the consequences of relying on government officials to develop industrial policies? Zhang Weiying said that the incentive mechanism for government officials and the incentive mechanism for entrepreneurs are completely different. Entrepreneurs fail and take responsibility for themselves. If officials fail, they will only shirk their responsibilities, and more will evade personal responsibility rather than take risks.
He pointed out that all the industries listed by the government to be supported by the government will have overcapacity, and they will not stop when they are not finished. In addition, industrial policies create power rents, leading to entrepreneurs’ rent-seeking behavior and corruption of government officials. A large number of companies that take money from the government cannot be innovative companies.
“Unpredictable innovation means that industrial policies must be wrong. If they support enterprises and industries that should not be supported, government officials are reluctant to admit mistakes because they will expose their ignorance. When industrial policies fail, the government I also tried to cover up and invest more in the project. As a result, it has grown to the point where it is out of control, from ignorance to shamelessness," he said.
Zhang Weiying's conclusion is that the limitations of human beings and the distortion of incentive mechanisms mean that industrial policies are bound to fail, and industrial policies will only hinder innovation and will not stimulate innovation. Entrepreneurs follow the government industry, and that can't be an innovative entrepreneur. For Chinese entrepreneurs, what they need is a free and fair legal environment, not a support for industrial policies. Now some entrepreneurs are fighting for the government's policy to give themselves the privilege, not to give all other entrepreneurs equal rights.
Therefore, he advocates the abolition of any form of industrial policy, the government does not give any industry, any enterprise special policy.
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