Summary In April, during the CIMT 2017 machine tool show, many people reported that the market has shown signs of recovery. However, with the release of the first quarterly report of domestic machine tool listed companies, it was found that the data support was insufficient. But considering the characteristics of the machine tool industry, from order to contract...
In April, during the CIMT 2017 machine tool show, many people reported that the market has shown signs of recovery. However, with the release of the first quarterly report of domestic machine tool listed companies, it was found that the data support was insufficient. However, considering the characteristics of the machine tool industry, it takes a long period from order to contract completion, so a quarterly report may not be able to judge the current situation well. But what is certain is that in the context of smart manufacturing or industrial 4.0 becoming the future trend, almost all machine tool listed companies are increasing the intensity of transformation and upgrading, and intelligent manufacturing is the direction of joint efforts.
The market has a warming signal
According to the statistics of China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association, the proportion of enterprises whose main business income and total profit decreased in the first quarter was 30.9% and 45.4%, and that of finished products inventories showed a year-on-year growth of 44.3%. Compared with the same period of the previous year, it has improved. According to the analysis of the machine tool association, the industry performance in the first quarter is highlighted in the following aspects:
First, demand increased slightly, and sales rebounded slightly. From January to March, new orders for metalworking machine tools increased by 1.4% year-on-year, and orders in hand increased by 16.8% year-on-year. Among them, new orders for metal cutting machine tools decreased by 5.7% year-on-year, and orders for orders increased by 12.0% year-on-year; new orders for metal forming machine tools increased by 42.5% year-on-year, and orders for orders increased by 34.1% year-on-year. It is worth noting that the revenue of the main business of the whole industry increased by 0.9% year-on-year. The main business income of metal processing machine tools decreased by 12.0% year-on-year. Among them, the main business income of metal cutting machine tools decreased by 18.8% year-on-year; the main business income of metal forming machine tools increased by 24.9%. The revenue from the main business of the measuring tools increased by 25.9%.
Second, the production of industrial enterprises declined slightly, and the inventory rebounded slightly. The output of metal processing machine tools decreased by 1.9% year-on-year in the first quarter. Among them, the output of Jinqie machine tools decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the output of metal forming machine tools increased by 17.2%. At the same time, the inventory of finished products of the whole industry increased by 6.9% year-on-year. The inventory of finished metal processing machine tools increased by 6.2% year-on-year. Among them, Jinqie machine tools increased by 8.8% year-on-year, and metal forming machine tools decreased by 9.4%. The inventory of finished products of finished tools decreased by 9.0% year-on-year.
Third, profits have rebounded significantly, and the loss has narrowed. In the first quarter, the total profit of the whole industry increased by 165.0% year-on-year, and the total profit of metal processing machine tools increased by 200.1%. Among them, Jinqiu machine tools increased by 46.9% year-on-year, and metal forming machine tools increased by 38.8%. The total profit of the measuring tools increased by 350.1% year-on-year.
However, the proportion of loss-making enterprises in the whole industry still reached 38.7%, and the proportion of loss-making enterprises in metal processing machine tools was 43.1%, of which 46.1% were metal cutting machine tools and 28.6% were metal forming machine tools, which decreased compared with January-February 2017. 9.8, 10.6, 11.7 and 4.7 percentage points. The proportion of loss-making enterprises was 25.0%.
Fourth, exports showed a recovery growth. It must be emphasized that since January 2017, the year-on-year growth rate of machine tool commodity exports has ended a negative growth of 18 consecutive months since July 2015. In the first quarter, the export value of machine tools and tools was 2.42 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.9%. Among them, the export value of metal processing machine tools was 680 million US dollars, up 8.3% year-on-year; the export value of metal cutting machine tools was 440 million US dollars, up 7.0% year-on-year; the export value of metal forming machine tools was 240 million US dollars, up 10.7% year-on-year. The export value of cutting tools was 550 million US dollars, up 4.9% year-on-year; abrasive abrasives were 490 million US dollars, up 12.7% year-on-year.
Based on these data, the machine tool association judged that with the advancement of supply-side structural reforms in China, the financial industry continued to increase its support for the real economy, the gradual emergence of the effects of “stable growth†measures, and new market kinetic energy and new investment hotspots. The combination of factors such as pulling has triggered the industry's recovery in the market from last year, and it is expected that the machine tool market and industrial operation will show a stable trend.
Listed companies perform poorly
As a leading company in the domestic machine tool industry, it has also been hailed as the representative of the machine tool industry 4.0, and the results of the Shenyang Machine Tool Quarterly Report are not very beautiful.
According to the performance forecast issued by Shenyang Machine Tool, it expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to March 2017 to be -2.8 billion to -2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of -124.98% to -108.91%. The average net profit growth rate of the general equipment industry was -2.57%.
In this case, the company said that it was mainly affected by the macro-economy and the overall environmental environment, which caused the market competition pressure to continue to increase, and sales revenue decreased compared with the same period of the previous year. In addition, the company deepened its transformation and upgrade, and accelerated the transformation of its operating model, resulting in a decline in revenue.
Kunming Machine Tool Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Shenyang Machine Tool Group, was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on March 31, 2016 for the delisting risk warning due to continuous losses in 2014~2015. According to a quarterly report of *ST Kunji, the company's net profit for the first quarter was -600,616,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 103.34%.
Huadong CNC, which is also subject to the risk of delisting, has also performed in recent years. On April 25th, *ST East Digital released the first quarterly report of 2017. The company realized operating income of 20,515.3 thousand yuan from January to March 2017, down 53.85% year-on-year; the average operating income growth rate of the general equipment industry was -3.15%; The net profit of the company's shareholders was -27,268,600 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.36%, and the average net profit growth rate of the general equipment industry was -0.43%. In this regard, Huadong CNC said that during the reporting period, the operation of the metal cutting machine tool industry continued to decline. The domestic and international market demand did not improve significantly, and the product orders were insufficient, especially for large machine tool products, and the market competition was fierce. The gross profit space is greatly compressed.
At the same time, although Qinchuan Machine Tool and Huazhong CNC's quarterly report are not very beautiful, they all show optimism about the future market. Among them, the performance of Nissin Seiki and Haitian Seiko is remarkable.
On April 14, Qinchuan Machine Tool released a performance forecast. The company expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to March 2017 to be RMB 0.02 million to RMB 50 million, representing a year-on-year change of 100.00% to 116.80%. The average net profit growth rate of the general equipment industry was -2.57%. According to the company, due to the increase in demand for machine tools, the company's operating revenue in the first quarter is expected to increase by more than 27% year-on-year. The sales of high-efficiency gear grinding machines are still strong, and the sales of ordinary machine tools, parts and tools business has also increased.
On April 26, Huazhong CNC released the first quarterly report of 2017, saying that the operating income in the first quarter was 181 million yuan, up 45.47% year-on-year; the average operating income growth rate of the general equipment industry was -3.15%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies - 8.7.63 million yuan, an increase of 59.26%, the average net profit growth rate of the general equipment industry was -0.82%.
In the first quarter, the company reported that the company achieved operating income of 238 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 36.46% over the same period of last year. The average operating income of the general equipment industry grew by -3.15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 14.52 million yuan, a year-on-year increase. 12.85%, the average net profit growth rate of the general equipment industry was -1.48%.
According to a quarterly report of Haitian Seiko on April 26, the company achieved operating income of 249 million yuan, an increase of 4.29% year-on-year; net profit was 11.092 million yuan, an increase of 13.90%.
It should be said that the length of this round of industry adjustment has exceeded many people's expectations. From the beginning of 2011 to the present, the prosperity of the machine tool industry has not improved significantly. For more than five years, the machine tool market has continued to decline for many years. In the past two years, the development and differentiation of industry enterprises has become more and more obvious. Some companies have operational difficulties, bankruptcy and restructuring, etc., so the performance of the above-mentioned companies in the first quarter is also reasonable. However, with the promotion of "Made in China 2025", many of the 04 special projects have entered a critical period of industrial transformation from results, and we expect domestic key enterprises to achieve good results.
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