The price of steel in the sub-region last week was as follows: Shanghai's regional steel prices fell slightly, and the price fell by RMB 20/ton from last Friday. As of September 6, it was reported at RMB 3,620/ton; Beijing's regional steel prices fluctuated, as of September 6. The daily newspaper is at 3,650 yuan / ton, the price is higher...
Last week, the price of steel in the sub-region was changed as follows: Shanghai's regional steel prices fell slightly, and the price fell by RMB 20/ton from last Friday. As of September 6, it was reported at RMB 3,620/ton; Beijing's regional steel prices fluctuated, as of September 6 At 3,650 yuan / ton, the price fell by 30 yuan / ton compared with last Friday; Guangzhou regional steel prices fell sharply, as of September 6 reported at 3910 yuan / ton, the price fell 40 yuan / ton from last Friday. Ping data shows that as of September 6, the average price of premium grade 35 rebar in the main domestic market is 3,708 yuan / ton, down 2 yuan / ton from last Friday; the average price of 6.5mm high line is 3745 yuan / ton, It was flat compared to last Friday. The data shows that although the PMI data was boosted at the beginning of the week, the steel futures have returned to the weak trend since Tuesday, the spot transactions have fallen, the market wait-and-see attitude has increased, and the steel prices are still dominated by weak positions.
According to the data, the average daily purchase volume of terminals in Shanghai this week increased by 55.3%. Market feedback, this week's market seems to be a revamp last week, all of which were released on Monday, and the highs fell on Tuesday. The Wednesday and Thursday continued to be light, and the sales volume stabilized on Friday, but the total amount showed a certain increase. At the same time, the current market irregularities are more serious, and it is not easy to buy goods.
The factors affecting the domestic construction steel market last week are mainly as follows:
One is that steel mill prices fluctuate in a narrow range. This week, domestic steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range. There were few steel mills that adjusted the ex-factory price. Only a few steel mills made small adjustments to the ex-factory price based on contractual orders. In the first half of September, the price of the antenna material in the leading steel mills in East China was slightly lower by 30 yuan/ton, while the prices of Shagang, Yonggang and Nangang remained stable. Considering that the price of steel mills has been intensified since the end of August, and the leading steel mills in East China have not made up the price in late August, it is expected that the pressure on steel mills in mid-September will increase.
The second is the narrow fluctuations in raw material prices. According to the monitoring data, as of September 6, the ex-factory price of ordinary carbon billet in Tangshan area was 3130 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton from last Friday; the scrap price in Jiangsu area was 2620 yuan / ton, compared with last Friday's price The price of coke was RMB 20/ton; the price of coke in Shanxi was RMB 1,150/ton, up by RMB 20/ton from last Friday; the price of 66% of dry iron ore in Tangshan was RMB 1,070/ton, unchanged from last Friday. At the same time, the 62% Platts iron ore index was US$136/ton, down by US$3/ton on a week-on-week basis.
The third is that steel inventories continue to lighten up. According to the monitoring data, as of September 6th, the total inventory of major domestic steel products was 14.41 million tons, and the week-on-week reduction was 1.25%. The inventory has been falling for nearly half a year for 25 consecutive weeks, and the inventory of large steel products declined this Friday. Inventories in major cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou have returned to decline, and only thread stocks in Beijing and Guangzhou continue to rise. At the same time, at the end of August, the key steel stocks of steel enterprises were 12.45 million tons, down 379,500 tons from the previous year, a decrease of 2.96%. The magnitude of the decline in inventory reflects the current optimistic demand situation, and inventory will not put additional pressure on prices.
According to analysts, the following factors will affect the future market trend, which is worthy of attention:
First, steel mills have limited production growth. According to the latest data of China Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel in late August was 2.119 million tons, up 0.05% from the previous tenth; the daily output of crude steel in key steel mills was 1.74 million tons, up 0.07% from the previous month. After steel prices rebounded for nearly three months, steel mill production growth has been limited, which may be the result of the superposition of raw material prices and the rapid reduction of profit margins and steel mills' lack of confidence in later demand, but on the other hand The cautious attitude of the steel mill's production capacity is also conducive to the steady development of the later market.
In February and August, exports increased significantly. According to the latest customs data, China's steel exports in August were 6.14 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.22%, a year-on-year increase of 44.8%. The monthly export volume reached a new high of nearly five years since September 2008. According to the calculation, the net export volume of crude steel in China from January to August reached 44.66 million tons, an increase of 6.61 million tons over the same period of last year, an increase of 17.4%. The sharp increase in exports in August was mainly due to the low-price promotion of domestic steel mills and the mild recovery of the European and American markets. It has played a certain role in relieving the pressure on domestic steel supply. Since July and August, the steel mills in the East China market have been discounted and the specifications are short. The phenomenon is also related to this.
Third, the overall economic data is improving. According to the latest statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, the CPI in August rose by 2.6% year-on-year and by 0.5% month-on-month. In August, the PPI fell by 1.6% year-on-year and 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. After the manufacturing PMI data hit a 16-month high in August, the PPI data in August also hit a six-month high, while the CPI was the lowest in three months, both of which showed a series of policies under steady growth. The economy is stabilizing towards good signs.
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