Abstract From the end of August to the present, the domestic steel market has continued to decline weakly, and there seems to be no sign of a rebound. However, for the trend of the steel market in October, most merchants said that after the holiday, the downstream demand will be released, the market mentality will also improve, and the steel market is expected to be stable and strong...
From late August to the present, the domestic steel market has continued to weaken and it seems that there is no sign of a rebound. However, for the trend of the steel market in October, most merchants said that after the holiday, downstream demand will be released, and the market mentality will also improve. It is expected that the steel market will show a stable and strong trend. Golden August, the autumn is high, it was originally a harvest season, but the steel market is “smooth†and there is no sign of “autumnityâ€.
In this regard, industry experts said: "Overall, the good news in August mainly comes from the macro side, but the steel market fundamentals have not improved, there are signs of further deterioration, in this case, how can steel prices rise? The cost of raw materials has weakened a little, the output of crude steel has remained high, the news of steel mills has increased, and the demand has not improved. The bad news is like a 'breast' inserted into the steel trader. !"
As the saying goes: There is no market that only falls and does not rise. After the oversold, there will be a rebound. Then, after more than a month of decline, can the steel market use the traditional sales season “Silver Ten†to “turn over�
HSBC's manufacturing PMI preview in September was 51.2, the highest in six months, once again confirming the indisputable fact that China's economy continues to pick up. The improvement of the domestic economic situation will undoubtedly create a good external environment for the steel market to get out of the mud.
“When the HSBC PMI data came out, the steel market responded strongly. The steel market rebounded more strongly than expected. However, perhaps the macro-good news has already been numb, and the domestic steel spot market seems to be unmoved, still unable to get out. Down the channel." China Steel Network analyst said.
In the automotive industry, the introduction of a new round of subsidies for new energy vehicles is expected to benefit the new energy vehicle market and stimulate the demand of the upstream industry chain. With the implementation of subsidies, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase significantly, which is also a big factor for the plate market. Good.
The improvement in domestic manufacturing will enhance the steel market recovery expectations. The Fed’s delay in exiting QE may also drive up commodity prices.
"The US announced last weekend that delaying the launch of QE may push up the price of raw materials for steel upstream and increase the expectations of the steel market recovery." Analysts said.
In addition, considering that the National Day holiday is approaching, the market stabilization factor will increase, and it is estimated that the domestic steel market price will be stable in the short term. If you can hold steady before the holiday, then after the National Day holiday, it is estimated that the business mentality will gradually turn to optimism.
Yongan Futures analyst said: "As the economic growth slowdown, steel overcapacity and long-term trend of raw materials such as iron ore are not optimistic, domestic steel prices have been falling for several months. Under normal circumstances, there will be a rebound after the oversold, estimated steel The market is not far from the bottom."
“In October, demand release is a high probability event. The positive news of the real estate industry policy level has been released recently, which may help the market to pick up. Moreover, from the perspective of government conferences, the investment in deployment is mainly concentrated in urban infrastructure construction and railways. Energy conservation and environmental protection, which will also increase steel demand.†The general manager of a material company in Shaanxi went on to say, “However, the increase in steel supply will also have an impact on the steel market in October. The latest data from China Steel Association shows that crude steel in early September Production has risen again, which will put some pressure on steel prices to stop falling."
Analysts said: "The economic data in August was extremely active, the overall macro outlook was good, and the market confidence was raised. The economic rebound continued until October. However, whether the steel market can improve in October depends on the game between supply and demand. If the steel mill intends to control production after the holiday and the downstream demand is released, the steel market will have a 'silver ten' market and there is still hope. Otherwise, it will be difficult for the steel market to get out of fatigue.
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