Abstract The rock gas revolution is undoubtedly one of the most important keywords in the global economic development process in 2012 and the following decades. The shale gas revolution pioneered by North America has brought profound impact to the world's energy utilization and industrial structure. With the help of cheap shale gas, it is put into the market...
The rock gas revolution is undoubtedly one of the most important keywords in the global economic development process in 2012 and decades to come. The shale gas revolution pioneered by North America has brought profound impacts on the world's energy utilization and industrial structure. With the large-scale introduction of cheap shale gas, the cost of manufacturing in the United States has fallen sharply, and the ambition to restore manufacturing has moved from ideal to realization. China manufacturing, which has always been known for its low cost advantage, is facing pressures for rising costs and shrinking profit margins. How should we focus on the future? From the perspective of human history, every change in the energy structure has brought about a new round of economic prosperity. In the 19th century, coal replaced wood as a base fuel, which gave birth to the rise of the industrial revolution. In the 20th century, the low oil price and the spread of fuel engines brought the global economy out of the abyss of the Great Depression, creating a golden development period of 20 years in Europe and the United States in the 1950s and 1970s.
For the United States, the shale gas revolution is undoubtedly an important engine for the US economy to emerge from the shadow of the international financial crisis and to restore manufacturing. However, for the Chinese economy that has experienced rapid development over 30 years of reform and opening up, the development and technology of shale gas lags behind that of the United States. The end of the demographic dividend is coming, and the challenge of maintaining the low-cost advantage of manufacturing in China is facing challenges.
From a policy perspective, the state attaches great importance to the development of shale gas. In June 2011, the shale gas exploration rights were first publicly tendered; on December 31, 2011, the Ministry of Land and Resources issued an announcement on its official website, stating that shale gas was officially listed as a separate mineral; in March of this year, the shale The Gas Development Plan (2011-2015) was released; in October this year, the Ministry of Land and Resources held the second round of shale gas bidding opening ceremony.
On December 6, the Ministry of Land and Resources announced the results of the second round of shale gas bidding. Among the 19 successful bidders, 17 are state-owned enterprises and 2 are private enterprises. Although the tender has finally opened its doors to private enterprises, overall, the state-owned enterprises are still the biggest winners.
Previously, in November, the Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration issued a subsidy policy for the development and utilization of shale gas. The central government subsidized shale gas mining enterprises. The subsidy standard for 2012-2015 is 0.4 yuan/m3, and the subsidy standard will be based on The development of the shale gas industry will be adjusted. Local finances can provide appropriate subsidies for the development and utilization of shale gas based on local shale gas development and utilization.
Essence Securities analysts believe that although China's shale gas reserves are huge, the current mining costs are very high, and the wellhead gas price needs to reach 4.5-5 yuan / cubic meter to achieve profitability. In addition, monopoly also affects the development of shale gas, overlapping of mining rights, high monopoly of natural gas pipeline transportation, and market pricing of natural gas all need to be resolved.
The industry believes that enterprises can not wait for domestic shale gas to develop mature, they must take the initiative to go out and share the opportunities brought by the North American shale gas revolution. Some companies have entered North America, and Jerry shares announced on September 21 that the company will develop the Canadian oil and gas block that was acquired in advance. The oil and gas block estimates that the geological reserves exceed 200 million barrels, and the estimated recoverable reserves exceed 20 million barrels.
Huang Deheng said that many companies based on the domestic situation of "rich coal, lack of oil and gas", and even three barrels of oil are vigorously developing coal chemical industry, but if you look at the global development strategy, the natural gas-based process route should be more Received attention. For example, chemical companies in the eastern region do not seem to have the advantage of raw materials. If they go to the United States to use local natural gas to produce methanol and transport it to China for further processing, it will renew its vitality and vitality.
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