The recent rapid rise in international oil prices poses a threat to the world economy in the fragile recovery, which has caused strong concern among countries.
Multiple factors have contributed to the rise in oil prices Since the end of last year, the global political situation has continued to fluctuate. Syria’s crude oil supply has been unstable, and the Iranian nuclear issue has affected the world’s attention. Since the end of last year, the United States and Europe have adopted severe economic sanctions against Iran, which has reduced Iranian oil exports. Many agencies see the Iranian issue as an important factor in pushing up international oil prices.
China’s energy economist Guan Qingyou believes that the Iranian issue has only a single event impact on international oil prices, which has, to some extent, increased the market’s concerns about the interruption of crude oil supply, but it is not the main reason for the recent rise in international oil prices. The most important factor in the recent rise in international oil prices should be analyzed from an economic perspective, that is, the influence of loose monetary policy in the context of the international economy.
On the one hand, the market is full of expectations for the Fed to launch the third round of quantitative easing (QE3). The International Monetary Union expects that the ratio of US Treasury bonds to GDP will exceed 100% by 2015. Substantial reduction of the debt burden by inflation is a shortcut. However, this increase in the price of bulk commodities will in turn restrict the performance of companies and the economy. On the other hand, at the end of February, the European Union decided to provide Greece with a second rescue fund totalling 130 billion euros. The relief funds met Greece’s short-term funding needs. Although it still failed to fundamentally solve the Greek debt problem, it still greatly boosted the market and international oil prices rose.
High oil prices or oil prices that affect the sustained economic recovery are undoubtedly worse for the global economy, which is still in a slow recovery. Recently, the International Energy Agency issued a warning that the current proportion of oil costs in the global economy is approaching the highest level in 2008, or threatens economic recovery. Analysts said that even if oil prices are at the current level, this may result in a decrease of 0.2% in global GDP growth this year.
The first to be hit by high oil prices was the euro zone countries. At present, the European debt crisis has still not been effectively solved. The countries in the euro zone are still coordinating their positions on issues such as salvaging Greece. This series of uncertainties has severely constrained the economic growth in the euro area and even the entire EU. Recently, the European Union announced that it lowered its expectation for economic growth this year in the euro area countries. The European economy has entered a moderate recession and it is a foregone conclusion.
The soaring oil prices have also hampered the U.S. economic recovery. In January, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 8.3%, the lowest in three years. Signs of recovery in the real estate industry, which suffered heavy losses during the financial crisis, have also become increasingly apparent. In spite of this, the fragile economic recovery process in the United States still cannot withstand the multi-faceted blow of high oil prices. High oil prices directly boosted gasoline prices and brought inflation pressures. The US Treasury Secretary Geithner recently said that it does not rule out the possibility that the United States will use strategic oil reserves to ease tensions in the international oil market.
In addition, Iranian oil is exported to Japan, India, and South Korea in large quantities. Decline in its exports and rising oil prices will affect the economic growth of these countries.
Many measures to deal with high oil prices At present, oil prices have become a political issue in the US presidential election.
U.S. media claimed that the soaring price of gasoline will renew Obama’s re-election. However, the Obama administration has taken a series of measures to deal with it.
U.S. President Barack Obama said on March 3 that the federal government of the United States should establish higher energy efficiency standards, save more expenses for the people, and deal with the overall upward trend in international oil prices. He also pointed out that since his inauguration, the United States’ oil production has reached the highest level in eight years. The United States’ dependence on foreign oil has been reduced year by year.
that's the truth. In recent years, the U.S. has been vigorously developing unconventional resources such as shale gas and shale oil, and its oil and gas production has increased year after year. Ruhr, chief economist at BP Group, said that due to shale gas technology, North America will soon export shale gas. By 2030, North America countries such as the United States and Canada will achieve energy self-sufficiency.
As the world’s largest energy consumer, the United States, if it achieves energy self-sufficiency, will have a major impact on the world’s energy landscape. At the same time, the lack of containment of oil resources will also cause the United States to make subtle changes in a series of foreign policies. However, for the time being, how to get rid of the current high oil price constraints on economic development is the top priority.
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