Just when we used the "Photovoltaic New Deal Release" to make April Fools' Day jokes, the PV New Deal had further new news. This time it really came, and the experts in the industry have already had more ways to subsidize and install. Clear understanding. Below we share the latest news of the 2019 New Deal on the issues that are of more concern to the industry.
1. When will the New Deal be released?
The original rumor was released at the end of March, but after the March 19 meeting, due to too many different opinions of the company, the policy release time can only be moved backwards.
The latest news is that the current new policies related to PV on-grid tariffs and photovoltaic power generation management measures have basically taken shape in 2019, and it is expected to be announced within this month. Some people familiar with the matter said that the relevant policies are currently in the process, and it is expected that the electricity price policy will come out first, and then management measures may be introduced.
The New Deal will be released in April. This is a relatively unified statement. As for when it will be released in April, relevant people said that the subsidy policy is expected to be introduced in the middle of April.
2. What is the form of subsidy?
After the talks on February 18th, a draft of the subsidy policy was published in the industry. The main policy was to limit the total subsidy of 3 billion yuan; to give special subsidies for household projects; and to obtain subsidy indicators by means of bidding for industrial and commercial and ground power stations. ; 'The tender is declared by the provincial organizations, but is sorted by the state; the subsidy standard is reduced by 1 minute/kWh per quarter.
This draft for comment was considered by the industry to be a positive one and has been recognized by most industry professionals. However, the policy plan of March 19 seems to have a big difference in the form of subsidy from the plan discussed on February 18, which caused different opinions of the company and led to the extension of the policy release.
It is understood that due to the opinions of the enterprises on the amount of the total subsidy funds and the subsidy of the stock power station, the price department has decided to adopt the widely recognized February 18 after discussing various proposals and seeking opinions from many parties. Program.
Specifically, the total subsidy is expected to be 3 billion yuan. Wang Shujuan, an expert in the photovoltaic industry, said that this year's PV poverty alleviation and household PV prices are expected to remain unchanged throughout the year. Centralized power plants and other distributed projects may compete on the basis of benchmark electricity prices. The benchmark electricity price may be 1 cent per quarter. The frequency is reduced quarter by quarter.
In addition, according to the plan of February 18, the PV on-grid price in 2019 is determined according to the limited total subsidy, the provincial bid, and the national queuing allocation. This also means that the indicator will be distributed nationwide and no longer given to a province. Send separate indicators.
3. How is the total subsidy of 3 billion yuan? What is the installed capacity?
According to the plan discussed on February 18th, the subsidized projects include: poverty alleviation projects, household photovoltaics, ordinary photovoltaic power plants (ground power stations), industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaics, front-runners, and UHV channel supporting projects.
How to divide the total subsidy of 3 billion yuan? Under the limit of the total subsidy of 3 billion yuan, how much can the installed capacity of household projects be achieved? How much subsidy is there for industrial and commercial distribution and ground power stations?
First of all, in terms of household use, the latest news is that the household installed capacity is around 3.5GW-4GW, which occupies 700 million yuan of subsidy funds.
Wang Shujuan said that considering the stock of projects in 2018, it is expected that the final size of new household PV in 2019 will be around 3.6 GW.
In terms of industrial and commercial distributed and ground power stations, the total amount of subsidies of 2.3 billion yuan is estimated to be around 34 GW -36 GW. According to Wang Shujuan's analysis, the proposed new grid-connected scale (including subsidized and unsubsidized projects, excluding UHV) submitted by State Grid and South China Network is about 32GW, so the final industrial and commercial distribution and installed capacity of ground power stations. It is 32GW.
In addition, it is reported that this year's installed capacity also includes 5GW of PV poverty alleviation projects and 4GW of front-runner projects. As a result, the installed capacity for the whole year of 2019 will reach 48 GW.
The grid-free power station, which has been worried about the industry in the past, is called “black-hub photovoltaic power station†in the industry. It is not allowed to be included in the 2019 subsidy scale.
summary
The above is the latest news about the New Deal in the industry. The subsidy policy has a clearer outline. According to rumors, the new installed capacity in 2019 is expected to grow relative to 2018.
However, it is worth mentioning that according to rumors, the total subsidy of 3 billion yuan for household use projects is divided into 700 million yuan, and the remaining 2.3 billion yuan is obtained from industrial and commercial distributed and ground power stations. Where did the subsidies for the 5 GW PV poverty alleviation project and the 4 GW front-runner project come from? If the poverty alleviation project and the front-runner project also share the total subsidy of 3 billion yuan, the rumors predicted that the installed capacity will drop significantly.
Therefore, the author believes that the total amount of subsidies of 3 billion yuan is specifically divided, perhaps until the formal introduction of the policy can be clarified.
In addition, in addition to the subsidy policy, how to solve the legacy problems of the “531†policy last year and the subsidy arrears of the stock power station projects are also the focus of the industry.
According to the latest news, the relevant policies are currently in the process. It is expected that the electricity price policy will come out first, and then the management method will be followed. This is also consistent with the author's previous predictions. Because there are too many issues to be considered in the formulation of this new policy, it is unlikely that all problems will be solved at once. In the current market has been greatly dragged down, the release of the policy has been on the string has to be issued, although there is no unified opinion, it should be slowly introduced.
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