Near the end of the year, both macroeconomic policies and real estate policies have reached an important node. Recently, Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, inspecting the construction of affordable housing in Langfang City, Hebei Province, emphasized that the current real estate market regulation has achieved certain results, but it is still in a critical period. It is necessary to persist in implementing policies to curb excessive growth in housing prices. Measures to further consolidate the regulatory results. The author was informed that at the time of the upcoming meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference, on the one hand, the prices of housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country have shown an overall downward trend, local land finances have shrunk, and the capital chain of developers has tightened; on the other hand, the State Council has been in two months. Many early warnings are needed to consolidate the regulatory results.
The industry believes that in the short term, the property market policy is difficult to make major adjustments, and the implementation of control policies is still the mainstay, while the trend of housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities will continue to show a downward trend.
Li Keqiang expressed in Langfang that it is necessary to continue to improve the housing supply system, while actively promoting the construction of affordable housing such as public rental housing and increasing the intensity of shanty towns, and at the same time increase the supply of low- and medium-price, medium and small-sized ordinary commodity housing.
According to the information of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, this year our country has already completed the goal of starting 10 million sets of affordable housing projects in advance. This is part of the 36 million new housing units built in China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. If these houses can be supplied in full, by the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the proportion of affordable housing in market supply will reach 20%.
Li Keqiang affirmed this point in Langfang, and emphasized the various aspects of funding, quality, access, and exit of the security housing, and said that it will attract social funds into the protection of housing, especially the construction of public rental housing.
In fact, funding is the main problem facing the current construction of affordable housing and may even affect the scale of construction of affordable housing. Minister of Housing and Construction Jiang Weixin once stated that due to financial pressure, the scale of affordable housing will be reduced next year, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will also assess the scale of construction of affordable housing during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period.
It is worth noting that Li Keqiang emphasized during the symposium that the construction of affordable housing will help curb excessive housing prices and boost urbanization. This will unleash a huge potential for consumption and investment and promote the development of related industries. Analysts believe that this may hint at the possibility that the construction of social security housing will be normalized.
Near the end of the year, high-level policies are quite intensive. On October 21st, when Premier Wen Jiabao visited Nanning, Guangxi, he also pointed out that the current real estate market regulation and affordable housing construction are in a critical period. Governments at all levels must take effective measures to further consolidate the regulatory results.
As the central government predicts, the current market rebound is evident. In the case of weak housing prices and sluggish land revenue, Foshan once publicly relaxed the "order to purchase restrictions." Due to the tight funding chain, some real estate companies also expressed their "unlocking" demands.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in October this year, the prices of newly-built commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country fell by an average of 0.14% from the previous quarter, and fell for the first time in 32 months. The price inflection point seems to have been formally established.
Yang Hongxu, head of the comprehensive research department of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, told the author that it is not difficult to see from the high-level position that the real estate control policy will not relax in the short term, at least until the first half of next year, the property market will continue to maintain the existing situation. He believes that the effects of the regulation of the property market have not yet fully emerged, and policies need to continue to be implemented. Therefore, next year's monetary policy and real estate policy may present a situation of “tightening and loosening†and whether there will be “relaxation†of surviving variables in the second half of the year.
The author finds that near the end of the year, measures such as “restriction orders†introduced by some cities have approached the deadline of the policy.
Many viewpoints also hold that the change of factors may also affect the trend of the policy. Yang Hongxu said that this does not rule out the possibility of local governments disguised in a relaxed policy, but the overall direction and intensity will not change. With continued policy pressure, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities will continue to fall month-on-year next year.
Relevant news: 15 cities have received 100 billion yuan in land sales year-on-year. Each time the author Zhang Minfa sent from Beijing in the current round of the property market regulation, which caused many housing companies to tighten the capital chain, the local government's life is not easy. According to statistics from the Central Plains of Beijing, as of November 20, the land transfer fees of the 15 primary and secondary cities in the country totaled 689.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 103.4 billion yuan from the same period of last year, and the reduction rate reached 13%. Among them, the price of land transfer in Shanghai alone exceeded 100 billion yuan, reaching 115.1 billion yuan, but it also decreased by 16% year-on-year. Land transfer fees in cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Nanjing also declined. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Suzhou Realize the rise.
The main reason leading to the above phenomenon is that the area of ​​transfer is reduced. Since the beginning of this year, 15 cities have jointly sold only 15,000 hectares of residential land, a decrease of 27% year-on-year. Beijing Zhongyuan stated that according to the scale of 100 square meters and 30% of the construction of each house, 15 cities will reduce their supply of 400,000 units this year.
The light situation in the land market was particularly evident in October. In Shenzhen, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Luoyang, Jilin, and other cities, there was no residential land for the whole month, and residential land parcels in Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Xi’an were zero transactions. The analysis of the Beijing Central Plains Market Research Department believes that under the background of large inventory pressure and the shrinking front of housing enterprises, the tight financing of enterprises and the suburbanization of land supply have also contributed to the shrinking of local “land financeâ€.
The industry believes that in the short term, the property market policy is difficult to make major adjustments, and the implementation of control policies is still the mainstay, while the trend of housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities will continue to show a downward trend.
Li Keqiang expressed in Langfang that it is necessary to continue to improve the housing supply system, while actively promoting the construction of affordable housing such as public rental housing and increasing the intensity of shanty towns, and at the same time increase the supply of low- and medium-price, medium and small-sized ordinary commodity housing.
According to the information of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, this year our country has already completed the goal of starting 10 million sets of affordable housing projects in advance. This is part of the 36 million new housing units built in China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. If these houses can be supplied in full, by the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the proportion of affordable housing in market supply will reach 20%.
Li Keqiang affirmed this point in Langfang, and emphasized the various aspects of funding, quality, access, and exit of the security housing, and said that it will attract social funds into the protection of housing, especially the construction of public rental housing.
In fact, funding is the main problem facing the current construction of affordable housing and may even affect the scale of construction of affordable housing. Minister of Housing and Construction Jiang Weixin once stated that due to financial pressure, the scale of affordable housing will be reduced next year, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will also assess the scale of construction of affordable housing during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period.
It is worth noting that Li Keqiang emphasized during the symposium that the construction of affordable housing will help curb excessive housing prices and boost urbanization. This will unleash a huge potential for consumption and investment and promote the development of related industries. Analysts believe that this may hint at the possibility that the construction of social security housing will be normalized.
Near the end of the year, high-level policies are quite intensive. On October 21st, when Premier Wen Jiabao visited Nanning, Guangxi, he also pointed out that the current real estate market regulation and affordable housing construction are in a critical period. Governments at all levels must take effective measures to further consolidate the regulatory results.
As the central government predicts, the current market rebound is evident. In the case of weak housing prices and sluggish land revenue, Foshan once publicly relaxed the "order to purchase restrictions." Due to the tight funding chain, some real estate companies also expressed their "unlocking" demands.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in October this year, the prices of newly-built commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country fell by an average of 0.14% from the previous quarter, and fell for the first time in 32 months. The price inflection point seems to have been formally established.
Yang Hongxu, head of the comprehensive research department of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, told the author that it is not difficult to see from the high-level position that the real estate control policy will not relax in the short term, at least until the first half of next year, the property market will continue to maintain the existing situation. He believes that the effects of the regulation of the property market have not yet fully emerged, and policies need to continue to be implemented. Therefore, next year's monetary policy and real estate policy may present a situation of “tightening and loosening†and whether there will be “relaxation†of surviving variables in the second half of the year.
The author finds that near the end of the year, measures such as “restriction orders†introduced by some cities have approached the deadline of the policy.
Many viewpoints also hold that the change of factors may also affect the trend of the policy. Yang Hongxu said that this does not rule out the possibility of local governments disguised in a relaxed policy, but the overall direction and intensity will not change. With continued policy pressure, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities will continue to fall month-on-year next year.
Relevant news: 15 cities have received 100 billion yuan in land sales year-on-year. Each time the author Zhang Minfa sent from Beijing in the current round of the property market regulation, which caused many housing companies to tighten the capital chain, the local government's life is not easy. According to statistics from the Central Plains of Beijing, as of November 20, the land transfer fees of the 15 primary and secondary cities in the country totaled 689.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 103.4 billion yuan from the same period of last year, and the reduction rate reached 13%. Among them, the price of land transfer in Shanghai alone exceeded 100 billion yuan, reaching 115.1 billion yuan, but it also decreased by 16% year-on-year. Land transfer fees in cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Nanjing also declined. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Suzhou Realize the rise.
The main reason leading to the above phenomenon is that the area of ​​transfer is reduced. Since the beginning of this year, 15 cities have jointly sold only 15,000 hectares of residential land, a decrease of 27% year-on-year. Beijing Zhongyuan stated that according to the scale of 100 square meters and 30% of the construction of each house, 15 cities will reduce their supply of 400,000 units this year.
The light situation in the land market was particularly evident in October. In Shenzhen, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Luoyang, Jilin, and other cities, there was no residential land for the whole month, and residential land parcels in Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Xi’an were zero transactions. The analysis of the Beijing Central Plains Market Research Department believes that under the background of large inventory pressure and the shrinking front of housing enterprises, the tight financing of enterprises and the suburbanization of land supply have also contributed to the shrinking of local “land financeâ€.
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