The automobile industry also has a "chewing head". A new round of growth may begin in 2013.

"Overall this year, China's automobile production and sales growth is about 3%, this figure will be the lowest in nearly 10 years, two percentage points lower than 5% in 2008." Recently, the China Machinery Industry Federation executive vice president Zhang Xiaoxiao stressed that even so, he still believes that the status of the automobile industry as a pillar industry of the national economy will be increasingly consolidated, and the trend of keeping pace with GDP growth will not change. "The close interaction between the automobile and the national economy determines that the domestic auto market will usher in a new round of growth in the future." Yang Jianlong, deputy director of the Industrial Economics Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, is optimistic that the next two years will be driven by investment. Further upgrading of the industrial structure and consumption structure will create conditions for the renewed outbreak of the automobile market.

Experts believe that before the entire economic restructuring really shows results, only enough investment can provide support for the recovery of the economy in the fourth quarter of this year, and this support will be driven by the sales of commercial vehicles and the growth of residents' income. The automobile consumption effect will gradually be transformed into the growth momentum of the automobile market and will be gradually released in the next 2-3 years.

“Insufficient consumption is closely related to the unsatisfactory growth of urban residents' income.” According to a set of data provided by Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of the China National Economic Statistics Monitoring Center, in the first half of this year, China’s fiscal revenue increased by 31.2% year-on-year, and industrial enterprise profits increased by about 28%. %, while the actual income of urban residents increased by only 7.6%, and the growth rate was significantly lower than in previous years.

According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the total retail sales of social consumer goods of urban residents in China, an average of 35% of the total expenditure on households is used to buy cars, and the expenditure on buying gasoline and other consumer goods is about 17%-20%. At present, the cost of buying and using cars by urban residents has already accounted for half of their income.

"In spite of the large decline in the growth rate of China's automobile production and sales in the first half of the year, from the perspective of sales rate, the sales rate of equipment manufacturing industry belongs to the industry average, and the profit growth rate of major automobile companies is around 9%. The decline in growth rate can be seen as a rational return." Pan Jiancheng said that the growth of China's auto market is far from complete.

Yang Jianlong even boldly predicted that by 2013, the Chinese auto market will once again usher in a new round of growth release cycle. "The current sharp decline in the growth rate of the automobile industry is not only the result of the favorable exit of the policy, but also the reason for the cyclical adjustment of the market itself. As long as the overall development trend of the automobile industry is still on the rising curve, the ups and downs of the growth rate are inevitable for the natural law of the market economy, and The current market tightening will take two to three years to re-release."  

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