Newly launched thermal power projects have generally slowed growth in installed capacity or caused “hard power shortages”

The "First Financial Daily" learned a few days ago that despite the completion of the major contract coal coalition meeting in 2012, coal production and transportation needs to be implemented, but the construction of new thermal power projects for the five major power generation groups is generally delayed due to capital and other issues. Experts believe that the growth rate of thermal power installations will continue to decline in the next three years and may lead to a recurrence of “hard power shortages”.

Electricity companies have two shortages of coal

In recent years, the lively scene of power companies competing for new projects has now gone. At present, the attitude of power companies to the newly-launched thermal power projects has undergone a 180-degree reversal and can drag on.

A senior executive of Guodian Power admitted to the newspaper that the five major power generation groups are not enthusiastic about investing in new thermal power projects.

"The more the thermal power plant goes into losses, the worse it is to pollute the environment. Who is willing to vote for it?" said a person in charge of a power plant in Hunan, the five largest power generation group. "We used to build a power plant without starting to get a strip and started working hard. Now we have got it. The road is still not working."

The responsible person revealed that Datang Huayin was included in a coal-electricity integration project in Hunan province as one of the key projects in Hunan Province in 2011. The total investment of the project exceeded 7 billion, and two 600,000 kilowatts of supercritical coal-fired generating units will be built. 4 sets of 600,000 kW generating units. And the project has now got the NDRC road, but it has not started construction because of funding problems.

The source told the newspaper that the current situation of the thermal power business of the five major power generation groups is that the old factory capital chain is facing a fracture, and the new project has been delayed and delayed due to lack of funds and enthusiasm. He disclosed that despite the fact that the five major power generation companies still have new projects under construction, all of them had already obtained roads and had to start construction; now, if they invest in new factories, they will have almost no incentive.

One of the main reasons for the loss of newly-built thermal power projects is that the power supply chain of power companies is generally tight. According to the above-mentioned executives, the average debt ratio of the five major power generation groups has already exceeded the red line by 85%, and it is not uncommon for subordinate power plants to have a debt ratio of more than 100%.

It is understood that Datang Group's total of 90 thermal power plants, the end of 2011 has 30 asset-liability ratio has exceeded 100%, the rest are at 80% to 90% of the abnormal level. The loss of the whole group's thermal power business has exceeded 50%. At the same time, according to industry estimates, the loss of thermal power business of the five major power generation groups in 2011 was about 7 billion yuan.

The other reason is that the key contract coal stipulated by the NDRC is very tight, and almost no new construction projects can be obtained. Datang Group, a power plant executive in Shanxi Province, told the newspaper that at present, the thermal power plants newly put into operation by the five largest power generation groups can only rely on market coal supply, and therefore almost all losses. "When the day of production is a loss, no one has enthusiasm," said the executive.

Installation growth rate decline

Xue Jing, director of the Statistics Department of the China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as “CEC”), said in an interview with the newspaper that at present, the state does not have a total amount of restrictions on the construction of new thermal power projects, but according to the 12th Five-Year Plan According to the general principles of the project and the current investment in thermal power projects, the number of new thermal power installations in the next two years will be less than in 2011, and new installed capacity will decrease year by year.

Xue Jing told the newspaper that the direction of the new thermal power project can be summarized as "Controlling the East, Stabilizing Central China, and Developing the West." Therefore, new thermal power projects in the next few years will mainly focus on the coal bases in the Midwest. In addition, the new project will focus on coal-fired power generation and coal-based coal and other comprehensive utilization projects, so as to increase coal utilization to reduce project losses and even reduce losses.

She pointed out to the newspaper that the current investment in thermal power and the scale of construction are insufficient. This situation is unreasonable. However, due to serious losses in the thermal power business of power companies such as the five major power generation companies, it will still be difficult to resolve in the short term.

According to the Dongxing Securities Research Report, the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment may have entered a rising cycle. The growth rate of thermal power installations maintained at 8% to 9% in the past four years, which was significantly lower than the growth in demand for thermal power; and due to the continued sluggish industry climate, thermal power investment has registered a significant negative growth in the past four years, and the growth rate of new thermal power installations in the next three years Will continue to show a downward trend.

The person in charge of the above-mentioned power plant also stated to this newspaper that, as the growth rate of thermal power investment and the continued decline of new installed capacity, the future power shortage may change to the direction of “hard power shortage”.