The price of PV modules and batteries began to fall in January and February this year, followed by silicon wafers. After May, the price of upstream polysilicon began to show a significant decline. After nearly three months of continuous decline, the price of polysilicon has been the lowest price in six years. The decline in the entire PV industry from the downstream to the upstream, in the view of Li Haitao, deputy director of the domestic business department of Baoding Tianwei Photovoltaic Co., is mainly due to the negative impact of weak demand in Europe.
Li Haitao: The main consumer market for polycrystalline (photovoltaic) is in Europe. The direction of some European policies is being compressed, and the support is decreasing, which affects its sales.
In fact, not only in Europe, but also the slowdown in the construction of photovoltaic power plants brought about by the European debt crisis and the reduction of European emission reduction targets. There is no doubt that the economic crisis in the United States and the replacement of the governor of California have led to more and more policies on photovoltaic energy. Uncertain, it is difficult to fulfill the original emission reduction targets after the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan. The shrinking demand of these major international markets directly leads to the situation of China's PV export is not as good as in previous years. When the industry boomed last year, large and medium-sized enterprises launched new projects, and the production capacity was now released, which aggravated the reversal of the supply and demand relationship in the photovoltaic industry. Wang Yingge, deputy manager of the Planning and Development Department of Xi'an Longji Silicon Materials Co., Ltd., affirmed that the imbalance between supply and demand is the root cause of the current industry downturn:
Wang Yingge: The fundamental reason is the fundamental imbalance between market supply and demand. The fundamental imbalance is that when the industry boomed last year, the capacity was seriously exceeded this year.
At present, more than 90% of the products in the entire photovoltaic industry are used for export and are highly dependent on the international market. In the real situation of severe overcapacity, is it possible to start domestic demand to reverse the current supply and demand situation? Wang Yingge believes that this possibility is very small. He analyzed that the current 12th Five-Year Plan for photovoltaics has not yet been introduced, but from the perspective of understanding, it is highly probable that the installed capacity of photovoltaics during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will increase from 5 GW to 10 GW per year. Adding only 2 GW, even Italy's installed capacity is not up to the level of the Czech Republic, the impact on the market will not be too big:
Wang Yingge: Even though China's market has a rapid growth every year according to the requirements, it is not enough to make up for the vacancy in the market. But in the Chinese market, this positive may play a certain regulatory role.
In the case that the prices of products in the whole industry are falling, all links in the industry chain have begun to choose strategic alliances or industrial extensions to effectively resist current risks and improve profitability. Wang Yingge has calculated that the gross profit margin from polysilicon to battery components is 33%, and the gross profit margin from battery to assembly is 13%. The benefits of the long industry chain are self-evident.
Wang Yingge: For example, if you want to make a joint venture between Jingao and MEMC, like the relatively large GCL and other manufacturers to establish a joint venture, through the upstream and downstream bundles, polysilicon foreign manufacturers like MEMC, REC are also signed with downstream companies. This long way, especially after the price fell this year, it is eager to sign long-term orders with downstream customers. Some polysilicon enterprises extend directly downstream, directly making silicon wafers and going downstream.
The research report of international research institute IMS Research predicts that the global PV module shipments will rebound strongly in the second half of this year, and the falling component price is the key factor for demand reconstruction in the second half of the year. Compared with the price factor, Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, valued the policy orientation. He believes that the UN climate conference held in South Africa in the second half of the year is the key to judging whether demand can rebound.
Han Xiaoping: If South Africa's climate conference, countries can re-agreed, then this market rebound may be stronger. If countries are still in crisis, and everyone can't take care of this climate change, then there is nothing at this meeting. Heavyweights go to the end and have not reached a global goal of reducing emissions, which may affect the overall development of the next PV industry.
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