"China's photovoltaic market is just in the embryo stage." Although photovoltaic power generation is still not profitable due to high costs, Shi Zhengrong, chairman and CEO of Wuxi Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd., believes that the prospects of the photovoltaic industry are still "very good."
What makes Shi Zhengrong have such confidence is that the state has introduced and implemented each of the new energy support policies represented by the photovoltaic industry during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period.
Cost constraints photovoltaic industry promotion
Zhang Jianmin, head of media of Suntech’s investor relations department at Wuxi, said, “From the perspective of the European market, for example, in Germany, solar energy accounts for less than 2% of its energy structure. In China’s energy structure, these new energy sources even have thousands of points. One in ten thousand won't take it."
At present, due to the cost constraints of the large-scale promotion of the photovoltaic industry. "Once the industry has passed technological advancement, rapid expansion through industrial scale, and full development through the industrial chain, and after achieving parity access in the short term, the development of the photovoltaic industry will far exceed any size you can imagine."
Not long ago, the successful bid for the second round of 280 MW photovoltaic power plant concession project indicated that the successful bid price was all below 1 yuan/kWh, the highest power price was 0.9907 yuan/kWh, and the lowest was only 0.7288 yuan/kWh.
Although industry analysts pointed out that under the 0.7288 yuan / kilowatt-hour price, the project needs at least 20 years to achieve profitability, the current reasonable cost of photovoltaic power generation should be between 1.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan. However, compared with the end of 2000, the cost of single crystal silicon solar cell power generation was 42 yuan/kWh to 47 yuan/kWh, which has dropped significantly.
Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, once stated that the benchmark price for on-grid photovoltaic power generation in 2009 is 1.50 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which will decline at a rate of 8% in the future. China's photovoltaic power generation is expected to achieve "cheap Internet access" in the next 5 to 10 years. ".
By 2015, the PV power generation on-grid tariff is expected to reach RMB 1.00 per kWh, which will realize the “parity access†on the power distribution side; in 2020, the PV power generation price is expected to reach RMB 0.60 per kWh, achieving “flat-rate access to electricityâ€. "The regular on-grid tariff will then be at this level.
“The era of affordable Internet access will soon be on the horizon! Some countries in the world, such as Italy, will be able to achieve parity online access in the near future, and China will no longer need a 10-year, 20-year transitional period. Once affordable Internet access can be achieved, then China's PV The market will open the era of great development," said Zhang Jianmin.
According to the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, China's grid-connected photovoltaic power generation will have the largest growth rate and total capacity in the next 20 years. Photovoltaic buildings will be connected to the grid for power generation, accounting for less than 10% of the cumulative installed PV market share in the domestic market. By 60% or more in 2020, there is huge room for growth.
Avoid detours and learn from Germany
China Investment Research Fellow Li Shengmao told reporters that the disadvantages of China's photovoltaic industry: First, the sales of photovoltaic cell modules are highly dependent on overseas markets. At present, most of the domestic PV cell module companies' sales markets are concentrated in the United States, Europe and other countries and regions, and the risk of being affected by foreign policies is relatively large. Second, most of the important equipment of the photovoltaic industry rely on imports, which drives up the related companies. The cost of production; Third, most of the silicon materials in the photovoltaic industry rely on imports. Therefore, many domestic PV companies have weaker control over production costs.
“China is still very early in the development of new energy, and it has also done a useful attempt to support solar energy.†Zhang Jianmin told the “Daily Economic News†reporter to issue “Golden Sun Plan†and “Roof Plan†for the entire solar photovoltaic industry. The market has a decisive role.
In an interview with the reporter, Cui Rongqiang, executive director of the China Solar Energy Society, said: “These two kinds of subsidies were implemented in Japan and are not very successful. Now that Japan is learning Germany’s 'on-grid tariff law,' China does not need to take a detour.â€
On January 1, 2004, Germany implemented the revised "Online Electricity Price Law", which stipulates that photovoltaic power generation must be connected to the Internet, and the power sector must purchase electricity in accordance with the stipulated electricity price, and the on-grid electricity price should drop by 5% annually. At the same time, Germany has also issued a series of policies such as preferential loans and funding subsidies.
In the eyes of Cui Rongqiang, the relevant departments should learn from Germany's “On-line Electricity Pricing Law†and issue correspondingly targeted policies, as well as relevant supporting measures. For example, a bank can provide certain support for funds and can learn to provide financial resources for photovoltaic power generation. "Compared to the on-grid tariff method used in Germany, the 'one thing, one discussion' system adopted by China has seriously delayed the development of the photovoltaic industry."
Policy support is increasing
For the current development of the Chinese PV market, Li Shengmao has his own opinions. He pointed out that with the gradual expansion of China's PV market size, the domestic market will occupy an increasingly important position in the sales market of China's PV companies during the “12th Five Year Plan†period. Secondly, domestic PV companies will enter a period of new capacity expansion. In particular, some leading companies will increase investment in the production of silicon materials at the top of the photovoltaic industry chain for the purpose of creating a vertical industrial chain; The concentration of the photovoltaic industry will increase. At present, the industry concentration of the domestic photovoltaic industry is relatively low, and with the formation of barriers to the entry of future technologies and funds for the photovoltaic industry, the domestic photovoltaic industry will enter a period of consolidation and the industry concentration will increase significantly.
In fact, China’s support for photovoltaic power generation is also increasing. The Ministry of Finance's subsidy standard for solar photovoltaic building demonstration in 2009 was finalized at 20 yuan per watt, accounting for nearly 50% of the current system cost. After the subsidy, the cost of power generation will also be reduced to 1 yuan/kWh, which will greatly increase the competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation.
However, the National Development and Reform Commission recently pointed out that in the current process of large-scale grid-connected wind power and solar energy, some regions are not sufficiently active in generating electricity from new energy sources. As of the end of 2009, 1/3 of China's wind turbines were idle.
For these issues, industry insiders pointed out that the "12th Five-Year Plan" period will be implemented through the implementation of new energy quota system, the implementation of the full amount of new energy power generation guarantee purchase system, and deepen the series of measures such as reform of the power system to be resolved.
The source also stated that the elements of the photovoltaic industry are already available and the time is ripe. Subsequent to the implementation of national policies in the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the era of blowout in the photovoltaic industry is approaching.